Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 182.767321 223.274402 274.095404 343.889015 439.465177 5.692571e+02 7.653565e+02
2025-02-23 136.148625 181.785907 246.749270 350.402056 521.046686 8.110062e+02 1.396238e+03
2025-03-02 107.448710 151.772901 220.284455 341.573835 570.644593 1.038218e+03 2.274254e+03
2025-03-09 89.145950 131.163674 200.194234 332.630236 612.480887 1.284206e+03 3.610176e+03
2025-03-16 75.639879 114.716907 181.941819 319.266494 637.342923 1.517097e+03 5.494871e+03
2025-03-23 71.179950 112.062168 186.567903 351.649321 784.811116 2.260159e+03 1.284101e+04
2025-03-30 64.521234 104.216627 179.525760 356.436545 866.521046 2.928227e+03 2.650826e+04
2025-04-06 60.028287 99.452753 177.324830 371.625871 991.705556 4.053336e+03 7.481137e+04
2025-04-13 54.492103 91.832493 167.633817 364.859911 1042.159729 4.952722e+03 1.958448e+05
2025-04-20 52.838389 91.439158 173.247835 400.997350 1286.059605 8.122999e+03 4.458785e+06
2025-04-27 50.893809 90.132419 176.515344 432.249311 1551.234039 1.344692e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 48.723292 88.020852 177.445068 457.144311 1825.524438 2.241339e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 46.090981 84.756747 175.411417 473.744292 2100.337925 3.843801e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 43.479067 81.208612 172.040109 485.033932 2376.364864 6.849338e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 40.234997 75.850869 162.967925 471.725236 2463.181062 9.967924e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 37.361721 71.017549 154.516665 458.066715 2538.189723 1.475884e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 34.589460 66.128224 145.158210 437.683352 2532.307938 1.986151e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 34.273875 66.906560 151.703284 487.318490 3339.522875 1.375646e+06 NaN
2025-06-22 32.720499 64.563549 148.884670 494.716375 3731.827370 8.539122e+06 NaN
2025-06-29 31.698968 63.392514 149.335329 518.286997 4451.882408 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 29.958456 60.276502 143.383268 507.769115 4644.248431 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 29.779013 61.030689 149.581102 564.286547 6358.922901 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 29.362832 61.134555 153.773827 613.822812 8479.615381 NaN NaN